Champ Week is in full swing, bubble teams everywhere are fretting about potential bid thieves and the coaching carousel will soon fuel rampant speculation. It can all mean only one thing.
It is time once again to try to extend one of the sport's most venerable streaks. I am referring of course to the storied feature known as the 355 teams that will not win the national title.
Each year, eight contenders are selected from Division I's 363 members. And every year since this piece's inception in 2016, the NCAA title has indeed been captured by one of those eight teams.
Here are the 355 teams that will not win the national championship, divided into three categories: ineligible, near misses and no clear path.
Bellarmine Knights
Lindenwood Lions
Merrimack Warriors
Queens University Royals
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Stonehill Skyhawks
Tarleton Texans
Texas A&M-Commerce Lions
UC San Diego Tritons
Utah Tech Trailblazers
1. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona looks like a chip off the old block from last year, which of course is amazing, given Tommy Lloyd lost Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko to the NBA draft. Then again, there's less daylight between this excellent offense and the rest of the Pac-12 than there was a year ago in conference play. Throw in a defense that's also taken a half-step back and the Wildcats land here. Barely.
2. Arkansas Razorbacks
Ricky Council IV and Nick Smith Jr. form a potent duo, and Makhi and Makhel Mitchell are formidable rim defenders. With Smith having missed a good deal of time this season, however, the Razorbacks are still trying to decide how exactly they expect to win with the SEC's No. 8 offense and No. 6 D.
3. Baylor Bears
Around the time the Bears reeled off 10 wins in 11 outings in January and February, the thinking here was we really must include this group in the magic eight. Then cooler heads prevailed, on the grounds that high-scoring Baylor had, by far, the Big 12's worst defense in conference play.
4. Creighton Bluejays
Now we're getting risky. Creighton gave Kansas its toughest challenge in the 2022 bracket before the national final. Furthermore, that was when the Bluejays were shorthanded, and a year younger than they are now. Make no mistake, with a slightly lower turnover rate, some more offensive boards and (thus) a higher number of shot attempts, CU would not be a "near miss."
5. Duke Blue Devils
Jon Scheyer's youthful rotation is hitting its stride and defending at a level that whole-season numbers aren't fully capturing. The challenge for the Blue Devils is that even at this late date their best play call on offense is still a missed shot. Duke is masterful on the offensive glass but mediocre in the half-court otherwise.
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
How fitting would it be if Gonzaga won it all this year as, say, a No. 3 seed? After some near misses as a top seed, maybe the Bulldogs will at last cut down the nets as a (relative) underdog. If so, it will be because the Zags either transformed or worked around a defense that started the tournament as the program's weakest such unit in over a decade.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
With all due respect to the great performers from the 24 other teams, Trayce Jackson-Davis is the outstanding player of this section. In addition to his defense and prodigious feats of scoring, he's now waving the ball around in one hand before firing bullet passes to the weak side for a corner 3. So why isn't IU's bottom line on offense better than ranking No. 7 in Big Ten play? Is it the 3-pointers that the highly accurate Indiana is failing to attempt? Whatever the answer is, it's landing the Hoosiers here.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes have been highly effective on offense (No. 1 in the Big Ten), highly erratic across the regular season (see: a loss at home to Eastern Illinois) and even highly variable within games (ask Michigan State about its trip to Iowa City). All of the above add up to appointment viewing, truly. But six wins in a row feels like a stretch.
9. Iowa State Cyclones
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While posting a 9-9 record in this year's Big 12 is an achievement in its own right, maybe the Cyclones just need to get away from all their league rivals. T.J. Otzelberger's group could look great the first weekend and have everyone marveling anew at the strength of ISU's league. On the other hand, this is also an offense that scored well under a point per possession during a four-game losing streak that closed out February.
10. Kansas State Wildcats
If last November you envisioned that an explanation would be needed by March for why Kansas State may not win the national title, take one proud step forward. Jerome Tang has ushered in a new era in Manhattan, and in Year 1 the vibe included 30% 3-point shooting by Big 12 opponents. Will this continue to be the case in the field of 68? Actually, it could, in which case the "near miss" label could well be misapplied. As Coach Tang says, what's next?
11. Kentucky Wildcats
You won't find a better rebounding team at both ends of the floor (and it's not just Oscar Tshiebwe -- we see you, Chris Livingston). Then again, holding opponents to one shot in a low-foul kind of way is just about the whole skill set for UK on defense. It's also unclear exactly when Cason Wallace will be returning from the injured list.
12. Maryland Terrapins
Everyone says if the tournament were played in College Park, the Terrapins would win it all. Why do we always portray the NCAA tournament as lacking home games in particular? If you're Kevin Willard, you're instead telling your team March Madness is in fact free of true road games. Still, across 10 contests of each type, the Terps were (slightly) less accurate from the field than their Big Ten opponents.
13. Memphis Tigers
Congratulations, Tigers, on making it this far. Just two weeks ago Penny Hardaway's team was still thought to be in danger of not making the tournament. Now we welcome Memphis to the safety of the projected bracket by finding fault with the team's performance in this or that respect. Tough business! But, yes, the Tigers' defense inside the arc is more adequate than excellent, including on the glass.
14. Miami Hurricanes
Here's a pick that gives us serious pause. Miami is old and skilled and can make an opposing defense look completely overmatched. Notable grown man Norchad Omier constitutes a compelling argument for ignoring high school recruits and building through the transfer portal. There's no "but" coming here. Eight is just a really small number.
15. Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans ended the season on an incredible roll on offense. You're likely hearing about this for the first time because over the course of the four-game run MSU went 3-1 instead of 4-0. As it happens, Iowa recorded even more extraordinary numbers on offense in its outing against Tom Izzo's team. So while Michigan State might not project to win six times, its one loss could be a highly entertaining watch.
16. Missouri Tigers
Dennis Gates has been a wonder in Year 1 at Missouri, and the year-to-year progression of Kobe Brown and Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge has been no less wondrous. Opponents do however tend to make their 2s against this defense.
17. Northwestern Wildcats
You can watch basketball for a long time and not see a team achieve the same kind of advantage in turnovers that Northwestern seizes game in and game out. Give full credit to Chase Audige and Ty Berry for sowing chaos among opposing offenses. Thing is, the Wildcats don't merely benefit from all the takeaways. They need them. On each possession in Big Ten play where there wasn't a turnover, NU was outscored by a healthy margin.
18. Providence Friars
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The last time we saw the Friars, they were pummeled at home 82-58 by the otherwise unprepossessing Seton Hall Pirates. While we studiously avoid recency effect around these parts, PC dropping three of its past four did trigger online speculation to the effect that Ed Cooley's group could miss the tournament entirely. If that occurs it will be difficult to win a national title.
19. San Diego State Aztecs
This is Brian Dutcher's strongest team since the Malachi Flynn days. SDSU is once again elite on defense, and the concern here is not that the Aztecs will live and die by the 3. The question is instead whether the Aztecs' offensewill do so. San Diego State ranked No. 10 in an 11-team Mountain West for accuracy inside the arc in conference play.
20. Saint Mary's Gaels
Randy Bennett's group famously plays tough defense at a slow pace. The Gaels also generate a high number of scoring chances by taking care of the ball and crashing the offensive glass. Logan Johnson and Mitchell Saxen are proven veterans and Aidan Mahaney's a master of hero ball at the tender age of 19. If the shots are falling, who knows, but "near miss" feels about right.
21. Texas Longhorns
Marcus Carr has been highly and rightly touted for years, yet somehow his performance this season isn't being touted highly enough. The fifth-year senior's hitting more shots and recording more steals than ever. His team, however, is lackluster on the boards, particularly on the offensive end.
22. Texas A&M Aggies
Wade Taylor IV is overwhelming opponents with made free throws in a cumulatively devastating way we haven't seen since Trae Young. In his past five outings, the sophomore has gone 51-of-55 at the line. The worry for the Aggies is what happens if Taylor isn't getting those freebies? A&M's accuracy from the field was just average in SEC play.
23. TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs shoot an exceptionally low number of 3s, and even those rare attempts tend to be misses. This makes the opposing defense's job easier even though Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Mike Miles Jr. form what's likely to be the hardest-working inside-outside duo in the bracket.
24. Virginia Cavaliers
In ACC play, the Cavaliers were somewhat interior-oriented on offense yet ranked No. 13 in the league for 2-point accuracy. Tony Bennett being the Jedi master he is, Virginia made do with shot volume and defense. Nevertheless, De'Andre Hunter isn't walking through that door.
25. Xavier Musketeers
This is a self-evidently dangerous group to put under "near miss." The Big East has tied itself in knots trying to defend Souley Boum, Jack Nunge and Colby Jones. It's possible that fabulous offense and really good defensive rebounding is enough to win it all. Placing the Musketeers here was a close call.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Air Force Falcons
Akron Zips
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Alabama State Hornets
Albany Great Danes
Alcorn State Braves
American Eagles
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Army Black Knights
Auburn Tigers
Austin Peay Governors
Ball State Cardinals
Belmont Bruins
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Binghamton Bearcats
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
Boston University Terriers
Bowling Green Falcons
Bradley Braves
Brown Bears
Bryant Bulldogs
Bucknell Bison
Buffalo Bulls
Butler Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
Cal Poly Mustangs
California Golden Bears
California Baptist Lancers
Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Central Michigan Chippewas
Charleston Cougars
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Charlotte 49ers
Chattanooga Mocs
Chicago State Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Citadel Bulldogs
Clemson Tigers
Cleveland State Vikings
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Colgate Raiders
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado State Rams
Columbia Lions
Coppin State Eagles
Cornell Big Red
CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners
CSU Fullerton Titans
CSU Northridge Matadors
Dartmouth Big Green
Davidson Wildcats
Dayton Flyers
Delaware Blue Hens
Delaware State Hornets
Denver Pioneers
DePaul Blue Demons
Detroit Mercy Titans
Drake Bulldogs
Drexel Dragons
Duquesne Dukes
East Carolina Pirates
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Washington Eagles
Elon Phoenix
Evansville Purple Aces
Fairfield Stags
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Florida Gators
Florida A&M Rattlers
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Florida International Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Fordham Rams
Fresno State Bulldogs
Furman Paladins
Gardner-Webb Running' Bulldogs
George Mason Patriots
George Washington Colonials
Georgetown Hoyas
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Grambling Tigers
Grand Canyon Antelopes
Green Bay Phoenix
Hampton Pirates
Hartford Hawks
Harvard Crimson
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
High Point Panthers
Hofstra Pride
Holy Cross Crusaders
Houston Baptist Huskies
Howard Bison
Idaho Vandals
Idaho State Bengals
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois State Redbirds
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Indiana State Sycamores
Iona Gaels
IUPUI Jaguars
Jackson State Tigers
Jacksonville Dolphins
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
James Madison Dukes
Kansas City Roos
Kennesaw State Owls
Kent State Golden Flashes
La Salle Explorers
Lafayette Leopards
Lamar Cardinals
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Liberty Flames
Lipscomb Bisons
Little Rock Trojans
Long Beach State Beach
Long Island University Sharks
Longwood Lancers
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
UL Monroe Warhawks
LSU Tigers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisville Cardinals
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Marymount Lions
Loyola (MD) Greyhounds
Maine Black Bears
Manhattan Jaspers
Marist Red Foxes
Marshall Thundering Herd
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks
UMass Minutemen
UMass Lowell River Hawks
McNeese Cowboys
Mercer Bears
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Michigan Wolverines
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Milwaukee Panthers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ole Miss Rebels
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Missouri State Bears
Monmouth Hawks
Montana Grizzlies
Montana State Bobcats
Morehead State Eagles
Morgan State Bears
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Murray State Racers
Navy Midshipmen
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nevada Wolf Pack
New Hampshire Wildcats
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico State Aggies
New Orleans Privateers
Niagara Purple Eagles
Nicholls Colonels
NJIT Highlanders
Norfolk State Spartans
North Alabama Lions
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina A&T Aggies
North Carolina Central Eagles
NC State Wolfpack
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota State Bison
North Florida Ospreys
North Texas Mean Green
Northeastern Huskies
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Northern Colorado Bears
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Kentucky Norse
Northwestern State Demons
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Old Dominion Monarchs
Omaha Mavericks
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Pacific Tigers
Pennsylvania Quakers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Pepperdine Waves
Pittsburgh Panthers
Portland Pilots
Portland State Vikings
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Presbyterian Blue Hose
Princeton Tigers
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Radford Highlanders
Rhode Island Rams
Rice Owls
Richmond Spiders
Rider Broncs
Robert Morris Colonials
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sacramento State Hornets
Sacred Heart Pioneers
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Francis (BKN) Terriers
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
St. John's Red Storm
Saint Joseph's Hawks
Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Peter's Peacocks
Sam Houston Bearkats
Samford Bulldogs
San Diego Toreros
San Francisco Dons
San José State Spartans
Santa Clara Broncos
Seattle U Redhawks
Seton Hall Pirates
Siena Saints
SIU Edwardsville Cougars
SMU Mustangs
South Alabama Jaguars
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina State Bulldogs
South Carolina Upstate Spartans
South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Florida Bulls
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
SE Louisiana Lions
Southern Jaguars
Southern Illinois Salukis
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Stanford Cardinal
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stetson Hatters
Stony Brook Seawolves
Syracuse Orange
Temple Owls
Tennessee State Tigers
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Texas A&M-CC Islanders
Texas Southern Tigers
Texas State Bobcats
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Toledo Rockets
Towson Tigers
Troy Trojans
Tulane Green Wave
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
UAB Blazers
UC Davis Aggies
UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside Highlanders
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UCF Knights
UIC Flames
UMBC Retrievers
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
UNC Greensboro Spartans
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNLV Rebels
USC Trojans
UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Martin Skyhawks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Utah Utes
Utah State Aggies
Utah Valley Wolverines
UTEP Miners
UTSA Roadrunners
Valparaiso Beacons
Vanderbilt Commodores
VCU Rams
Vermont Catamounts
Villanova Wildcats
Virginia Tech Hokies
VMI Keydets
Wagner Seahawks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Weber State Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers
Western Carolina Catamounts
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Michigan Broncos
Wichita State Shockers
William & Mary Tribe
Winthrop Eagles
Wisconsin Badgers
Wofford Terriers
Wright State Raiders
Wyoming Cowboys
Yale Bulldogs
Youngstown State Penguins
Look at you scrolling all the way down here. Well done!
Now, if our math is correct there are but eight teams remaining that have not been named.
If you're a fan of one of these eight as-yet unseen teams, congratulations! Your team has made the 2023 magic eight, which, by simple process of elimination, consists of the following: Alabama, UConn, Houston, Kansas, Marquette, Purdue, Tennessee and UCLA.
A final word to our group of eight: This is bigger than all of you. There's a streak to be considered. Go out there and make this feature look smart.